Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an Unknowable Future

Radical Uncertainty- Decision-making for an Unknowable Future

Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an Unknowable Future

英文电子书代找,英语电子书代找,微信ID:Englishrise

书籍英文名:Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an Unknowable Future 

书籍作者:Mervyn King, John Kay

书籍简介:Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book. Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manage uncertainty.

Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one―not least Steve Jobs―knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package―what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?―demonstrate only that their advice is worthless.

The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

购买提示:付款后,会在1~8小时内通过邮件发送电子书PDF版本,如有疑问请加Englishrise微信客服号(微信ID:Englishrise),谢谢!

担心付款后,不发货?看看我们读者反馈👉  读者反馈

Upstream: The Quest to Solve Problems Before They Happen

How I Built This: The Unexpected Paths to Success from the World’s Most Inspiring Entrepreneurs

Billion Dollar Brand Club

Author: Charles Yin